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Alvarado is in a Suboptimal performance window (TriSync Rating < 1.95), revealing a poor result. With an Aligned profile, his performances tend to follow those cycles closely, thus, increasing the likelihood of a lackluster start.
Opposing Pitcher TriSync Projection: 4.22 vs BOS
With a TriSync Rating greater than or equal to 3.75 and less than 5.55, Alvarado enters a Good window, where workman-like performance is strongly supported. His Aligned profile enhances this reliably modest edge, as his results historically track his cycles more consistently than Variable profiles.
Opposing Pitcher TriSync Projection: 3.03 vs BOS
| Level | G | W | L | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | K/9IP | ERA | WHIP | BAA | Game Rating +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.0 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.000 | +5.62% |
| Good | 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 34.0 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 45 | 11.9 | 2.91 | 0.97 | 0.176 | +6.10% |
| Fair | 30 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31.0 | 28 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 18 | 36 | 10.5 | 4.94 | 1.48 | 0.233 | -2.92% |
| Suboptimal | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.1 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6.1 | 6.14 | 2.05 | 0.379 | -15.84% |
| Season | G | W | L | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | K/9IP | ERA | WHIP | BAA | Game Rating x̄ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.0 | 26 | 18 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 10.7 | 5.23 | 1.26 | 0.232 | 3.78 |
| 2025 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 42.1 | 34 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 22 | 50 | 10.6 | 3.19 | 1.32 | 0.214 | 3.86 |
|
Date
|
Opponent | Decision | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K |
Composite Score
|
Output Level
|
Game Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | BOS | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Suboptimal | 4.08 | ||
| Jul 24, 2026 | @MIN | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Good | 3.93 | ||
| Jul 21, 2026 | @AZ | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | Fair | 3.79 | ||
| Jul 19, 2026 | WSH | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Fair | 0.92 | ||
| Jul 10, 2026 | @CWS | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Good | 5.16 | ||
| Jul 7, 2026 | @DET | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Suboptimal | 4.52 | ||
| Jul 5, 2026 | MIA | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Good | 2.92 | ||
| Jul 4, 2026 | MIA | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Good | 3.95 | ||
| Jun 30, 2026 | LAD | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Fair | 4.01 | ||
| Jun 28, 2026 | @LAA | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 4.37 | ||
| Jun 26, 2026 | @LAA | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Good | 4.37 | ||
| Jun 24, 2026 | @SF | L | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Suboptimal | 2.02 | |
| Jun 21, 2026 | LAA | L | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Good | 3.05 | |
| Jun 19, 2026 | LAA | W | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Fair | 5.31 | |
| Jun 16, 2026 | PIT | L | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Fair | 3.07 | |
| Jun 13, 2026 | COL | SV | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Fair | 5.26 | |
| Jun 10, 2026 | MIL | SV | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Good | 5.26 | |
| Jun 9, 2026 | MIL | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Good | 5.33 | ||
| Jun 6, 2026 | @HOU | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Good | 5.01 | ||
| Apr 17, 2026 | CWS | 2.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | Good | 0.49 | ||
| Apr 14, 2026 | TEX | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Good | 3.95 | ||
| Apr 12, 2026 | @NYM | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Fair | 3.95 | ||
| Apr 10, 2026 | @NYM | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 4.22 | ||
| Apr 8, 2026 | @NYY | W | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 4.89 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | HOU | W | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Good | 4.89 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | HOU | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | Suboptimal | 1.57 | ||
| Apr 1, 2026 | @ATL | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Suboptimal | 2.86 | ||
| Mar 30, 2026 | @ATL | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Good | 4.22 | ||
| Mar 28, 2026 | @TOR | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Fair | 2.22 | ||
| Sep 28, 2025 | KC | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Fair | 4.37 | ||
| Sep 27, 2025 | KC | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Fair | 3.85 | ||
| Sep 24, 2025 | HOU | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Fair | 4.37 | ||
| Sep 19, 2025 | @PIT | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Good | 4.52 | ||
| Sep 17, 2025 | @BOS | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Suboptimal | 4.12 | ||
| Sep 13, 2025 | CIN | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Good | 3.93 | ||
| Sep 10, 2025 | BOS | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Fair | 2.52 | ||
| Sep 9, 2025 | BOS | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Fair | 4.08 | ||
| Sep 5, 2025 | @LAA | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 4.37 | ||
| Sep 3, 2025 | @STL | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Good | 3.35 | ||
| Aug 31, 2025 | TEX | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | Fair | 2.52 | ||
| Aug 26, 2025 | DET | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | Fair | 4.94 | ||
| Aug 25, 2025 | DET | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 4.37 | ||
| Aug 22, 2025 | @SEA | L | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 2.36 | |
| Aug 20, 2025 | @MIN | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Fair | 3.50 | ||
| Aug 17, 2025 | LAA | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Good | 4.37 | ||
| Aug 15, 2025 | LAA | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Good | 4.66 | ||
| Aug 13, 2025 | TB | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 2.36 | ||
| Aug 10, 2025 | @BAL | W | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Fair | 4.79 | |
| Aug 8, 2025 | @BAL | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 4.37 | ||
| Aug 3, 2025 | AZ | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Good | 2.92 | ||
| Aug 1, 2025 | AZ | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Good | 4.08 | ||
| Jul 29, 2025 | SEA | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | Good | 3.79 | ||
| Jul 28, 2025 | SEA | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Good | 4.81 | ||
| Jul 25, 2025 | @HOU | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Good | 4.86 | ||
| Jul 21, 2025 | @TEX | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 2.36 | ||
| Jul 18, 2025 | @CLE | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Fair | 4.08 | ||
| Jul 12, 2025 | TOR | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | Good | 4.94 | ||
| Jul 9, 2025 | ATL | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Good | 3.93 | ||
| Jul 8, 2025 | ATL | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Good | 4.08 | ||
| Jul 5, 2025 | SF | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Excellent | 4.08 | ||
| Jul 2, 2025 | @TB | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Good | 4.44 | ||
| Jun 29, 2025 | @NYY | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Good | 4.22 | ||
| Jun 3, 2025 | MIN | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Fair | 3.69 | ||
| Jun 2, 2025 | MIN | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Fair | 3.13 | ||
| May 11, 2025 | NYY | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Fair | 3.50 | ||
| May 9, 2025 | NYY | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Good | 2.20 |
A rating below 1.95 signals Alvarado is outside his well-positioned range. Because his profile is Aligned, he typically follows these downturns closely, pointing toward a lackluster game result.
Opposing Pitcher TriSync Projection: 3.48 vs BOS